ILPA analysis challenges earned settlement timeline assumptions
02 Oct 2026
If you're on a Skilled Worker visa and worried the government's earned settlement plans mean everyone faces a flat 10-year wait for ILR, new analysis from the Immigration Law Practitioners' Association (ILPA) suggests that's not the likely picture. A report from the Electronic Immigration Network (EIN) summarising ILPA's briefing looked at main Skilled Worker applicants who entered between Q4 2021 and Q1 2026, and found that "most applicants would, in fact, be on either a five-year (or shorter) route or a 15-year (or longer) route."
The breakdown ILPA estimates is stark: 48% would face 15 years or more, 44% would face 5 years or less, and only 8% would land on a 10-year route. The analysis also points to uneven impact by nationality, with applicants from African and South Asian countries more likely to face the 15-year route, and those from North America and Europe more likely to be on the 5-year route.
This matters because the exact qualifying period under earned settlement is still being worked out, and these figures suggest it won't apply evenly across all Skilled Workers in the way a single "10-year route" headline might imply. Nothing here changes your current ILR qualifying period yet, since the Home Secretary has said earned settlement policy details are still due later this year. Keep an eye on this blog for updates once firm rules are published, and don't make big decisions based on assumptions about a flat 10-year wait.
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